SC Discussion Topic 2: Alternative Voting Systems

Over the course of the next months, I'm going to pose a high-level political process question to the SC faithful. These questions will be mostly about how the government is fundamentally structured rather than on some sort of issue. My hope is that we can all debate from first principles on an issue that isn't readily discussed in normal political discourse.

Because we generally use single-member districts in the US, I will focus on alternative voting systems that are used in single-member districts.

In US federal elections and in almost all state and local elections we use the first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system (also known as plurality voting). Under this voting system any number of candidates are allowed to run for office and the one who receives the most votes wins. All voting systems devolve to FPTP when there are exactly two candidates for a single-member district because one must necessarily get at least 50% of the vote.

An advantage to FPTP is that voting is very straightforward -- simply vote for the candidate who you want to win. Another advantage is that votes are easily counted and election results are known quickly (no need for runoffs, which may be expensive). Disadvantages include the ability for a candidate to win with less than a majority of voters voting for him and the inability to show anything more than support for a single candidate (ie, you can't rank candidates or vote for more than one).

FPTP lends itself to tactical voting due to the spoiler effect . Tactical voting is defined as voting for a candidate other than the one you prefer the most (ie, crossing over to vote in another party's primary to vote for a weaker general election candidate). The spoiler effect is a direct consequence of the fact that a candidate can win without a majority of votes cast. The most popular example of the spoiler effect is in the 2000 Presidential election where George Bush officially received 537 more votes than Al Gore in Florida, but many people voted for minor party and independent liberal/left-wing candidates such as Ralph Nader. It reasons that these voters would have rather seen a Gore presidency, but since they did not explicitly vote for Gore, their preferences for someone other than their candidate of choice are not realized. Had 538 of these people voted for Gore, he would have been the President. Duverger's law predicts that a stable two-party system will develop when FPTP is used.

Two popular alternative voting methods are instant-runoff voting (IRV) and approval voting (AV). These methods are referred to as preferential voting systems because voters can transmit their preferences of the candidates.

Under IRV, you may rank the candidates on the ballot by preference. The advantage is that you can effectively say, "I wan't candidate X to win, but if he doesn't win, my second choice is Y, and if he doesn't win, etc., etc." Assuming there is no clear majority winner, the candidate with the least first place votes is eliminated. Any ballots which ranked him first are examined to determine those voters' 2nd choice. The 2nd choice votes from those ballots are allocated to the respective candidates. If a majority winner now exists, the process is over. If not, another round of elimination and allocation continues until there is a majority winner.

In the "Nader scenario" described above (excluding other minor party candidates for brevity), Al Gore would have likely won many of Nader's 2nd place votes -- probably enough to have beat Bush in that state.

Under AV, you may simply vote for as many candidates as you like. The candidate with the most votes wins. It's that simple.

Again, in the "Nader scenario" many Nader supporters would have likely voted for Gore as well as Nader (and possibly other left-wing candidates) to be sure that Bush did not win.

Essentially the question is: Should we be using a different voting method? Are IRV, AV, or any other preferential methods superior to FPTP? If so, will people be ready for such a large change in their voting system? What can we do to educate people about alternative voting systems so that any fear or apprehension can be assuaged?

Once this debate grows stale, I'll start a new discussion tentatively based on the idea of a directly elected Federal executive cabinet.

Previous discussion topics:
1 - Ballot Access Laws

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Not to get tangental but a good place to start is to dump the

Electoral College and have the President elected by popular vote.

Every citizens vote should count the same.

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Here, here, I second that!

n/t

"A society that puts equality before freedom will have neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both." ~ Milton Friedman


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Of course that would require a Constitutional Ammendment

to actually make that happen.

That's the toughie, getting 37 states to agree.

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Not necessarily

TheNational Popular Vote Interstate Compact

Some states are bypassing the amendment process and simply voting to allocate their electoral votes to the popular vote winner, but only after a majority of electors are pledged in the same fashion.

Currently 4 states representing 50EVs have passed the law in this fashion:
Maryland - 10
New Jersey - 15
Illinois - 21
Hawaii - 4

In California (55), Vermont (3), and Rhode Island (4), the bill was passed by the legislature, but vetoed by the governor. The bill is currently waiting for action from the Governor of Massachusetts.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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Electoral Voting...

Over the past 200 years, over 700 proposals have been introduced in Congress to reform or eliminate the Electoral College. There have been more proposals for Constitutional amendments on changing the Electoral College than on any other subject.

The system is messed up to say the least! Electors are not bound to vote the will of the people in their respective state, some states it is winner take all, others are proportional, some states bind the electors to the party, others do not! It's madness!

If there is one law that should be federally mandated, it seems electing the chief executive should be it.

"A society that puts equality before freedom will have neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both." ~ Milton Friedman


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Federalism

If there is one law that should be federally mandated, it seems electing the chief executive should be it.

Those Founding Fathers liked the idea of the states electing the President and having a way to "correct" voters voting for the wrong candidate.

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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I know they liked the elector idea...

....they got that from the Roman Senate, but I thought it was more about logistics, counting transporting etc ballots?

What gives you the idea you proffered, or are you joking? :-)

"A society that puts equality before freedom will have neither. A society that puts freedom before equality will get a high degree of both." ~ Milton Friedman


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Undermining the popular vote more American than Apple Pie.

What gives you the idea you proffered, or are you joking? :-)

A boat load of History majors helped give me that idea. Among other things

In our society, people are rewarded for pretending to be certain about things they're clearly not certain about. -- Sam Harris,

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Electoral college as proxy voting

I had the impression that the EC was meant to act as a proxy-voting system, since the actual presidential candidates had almost no way of communicating with the masses.

 It could also be seen as a way of keeping power in the hands of the state-level political elite, thereby protecting Federalism.

Of course, that's all irrelevant now.

"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas

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Technically they still can

The Florida legislature was ready to appoint the electors for George Bush if Gore's challenges would have succeeded in him becoming President.

This is perfectly Constitutional.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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#4

You're up next after Adam's suggestion.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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A system where a third party exists would be nice.

How to achieve that is the tough question. At any rate, since I really cannot stand either of the two Presidential candidates that we've got, I plan on doing my own write-in at the polls this November.

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third parties in plurality systems

Britian's "Liberal Democrats" seem to have beaten

 

Optimus Prime for President!

"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas

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Impossible

There is no room between the Democrats and Republicans because they tend to be very much the same when speaking of their moderates.

As much as people love to pretend Ds and Rs are nothing alike, they generally agree on what needs to be done, but not on how to do it.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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tactial voting with approval voting

Wikipedia has a great article on approval voting. Thanks for the link.

Approval voting might be a little better than the current system, but I think that it would essentially devolve into the current two party system because of this strategy:

Vote for any candidate that is more preferred than the expected winner
and also vote for the expected winner if the expected winner is more
preferred than the expected runner-up. This strategy coincides with the
optimal strategy if there are three or fewer candidates of if the pivot
probability for a tie between the expected winner and expected
runner-up is sufficiently large compared to the other pivot
probabilities.

The benefit is that it would allow voters to express their preference for alternative candidates, which could form the basis for forming new political movements or advancing the career of "outsider" candidats--both of which could, over the long-run, give regular citizens more influence over the political elite.

"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas

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You're probably right

I like AV over IRV simply because IRV fails monotonicity . That is, by ranking someone higher on your ballot, you can cause them to lose.

AV is nice because it most properly represents the preferences of the voter. The only tactical voting you can do is to vote for the major party candidate you like.

Your objection is noted, though. I don't think it'd do too much in the short run except give minor parties a bigger spotlight. I'm willing to bet a lot of Democrats would vote and would have voted for Nader if they knew they could also vote for the Democrat. Similarly, lots of Republicans would feel free to vote for Barr or the Constitution Party candidate.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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Implementing IRV

I think the best places to implement IRV is in small communities without established political coalitions. This could include clubs/fraternities, universities, and one-party cities. These seem to be the situations where plurality voting often fails (i.e. gives erratic results or excludes some voters) and where the logistics of change are a bit simpler.

For example, here in Pittsburgh the city is completely run by Democrats. In effect, the primary election is the real election, and the general election is a formality. As a result, registered Republicans are completely excluded from the decision-making process.

In fraternal organizations, you probably don't want to see the development of formal factions (i.e parties), but you also don't want to spend all day in a meeting recasting votes just so someone can get a majority. IRV could be good in these situations, on two conditions

1) The organization has the logistical ability to handle IRV ballots/counting.

2)  The organization doesn't rely on real-time debates (between rounds of voting) to arrive at their decisions. In an iterative, multiple-ballot process, it could be good to have multiple rounds which eliminate the least popular candidates first and allow the debate to focus on the distinctions among the most popular candidates.

"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas

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Vermont tried

Vermont attempted to use IRV for US House and Senate races, but the bill was vetoed by their governor. Vermont has a strong minor party in the Progressive Party. In fact, their governor (a Republican) won because the vote was split between the Progressive and Democratic candidates.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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A more complicated IRV

Proponents of plurality often appeal to the simplicity of the election itself (though it produces quite complicated politics outside of the actual vote). In contrast, IRV seems kinda complicated...but I don't view this as a problem. In fact, it might be a feature!

Another criticism of IRV is that moderate candidats (i.e. everyone's second choice) could be eliminated in the early rounds. I can think of a couple of hacks that could reduce this problem:

  1. First, apply Condorcet's criteria (winner of pairwise competitions) to the ranked ballots. If a single winner is not foun, then use IRV to select among the individuals in the set of possible winners identified by Condorcet's method.
  2. Rather than eliminating candidates based on their first-place votes, eliminate them based on a Borda count (points awarded based on rank).

This second option makes a lot of sense to me, and doesn't really complicate the IRV.

"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas

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I actually prefer condorcet voting

But I'm afraid a lot of it's methods are too complex for the average person.

Borda count usually will elect a moderate, but since I think moderates are the problem, I'm not too inclined to support it. :-)
The real problem with Borda is that it is susceptible to tactical voting. Condorcet is as well, but it's much less likely to happen.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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don't make me show my conservative side...

but since I think moderates are the problem, I'm not too inclined to support it.

I don't see how "moderates" as a category can be considered part of the problem.

If we are to have a representative system, then our elected representatives should have the same attitudes as the general public. To the extent that we have a one-to-many relationship between the representative and his constituents, the representative will have to represent a compromise between his constituients -- i.e. he'll have to be "moderate" or "centrist". (this does not imply that he is in favor of the status quo, or that he is moderate on each issue, only that as a whole he has some agreement with each of his constituents).

The way I'm reading what you wrote above, you like how the plurality system selects center-left and center-right politicians (rather than straight centrist politicians), and maybe you'd even support a system that has our government wildly alternating between solid-left and solid-right.

I prefer a bit of stability in our government's policies, and moderates are an important part of producing that stability.

"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas

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Moderates have no faith in medicine

You missed the ":-)"

The easy (and obvious) reason to throw out Borda is because someone who a majority of people voted for as their first choice can still lose. It's also incredibly easy to game the system.

With respect to moderates, I tend to give them the cold shoulder because moderates, almost by definition, think this is about as good as it gets with respect to government policy. Generally speaking, the government as it is is as it should be with maybe a few minor tweaks here or there. With moderates there are no bold policy changes or new programs (or even the outright elimination of old programs).

Look at Medicare part D for instance. That's the work of moderates trying to graft some sort of half-assed market competition model onto what is essentially a socialist program. Surprise, surprise! Free market forces don't work in a socialized market.

The same can be said about the federal student loan program. We're essentially subsidizing and guaranteeing student loans at the rate of 6% or so. It's quite obviously more efficient for the government to simply loan the money directly to students. In the former situation, taxpayers are on the hook if the loan goes into default, and there is a handsome subsidy for the private company. In the latter, taxpayers are on the hook if the loan goes into default and that's it. No extra money is used to subsidize the profits of the private company.

In a perfect electoral system, the Congress as a whole would represent America as a whole. If 35% of the people voted for a Democrat, 35% of the seats should be held my Democrats. If 3% of the people voted for a Communist, 3% of the seats should be held by Communists, etc.

If I had my way, we'd elect X representatives by open list (or closed list, perhaps, or maybe even by STV) in a single, country-wide electoral district and the 17th amendment would be repealed. A more realistic and tempered way is to require each state to use STV or open/closed list to allocate their congressional members, all being at large. There'd be no districts. Federal politicians, by definition shouldn't be worried about local issues.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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IRV as first step towards proportional rep

One of the reasons I like IRV is that it can easily be extended into a system of proportional representation, whereas other voting systems seem to introduce problems upon such an extention.

This is one way to keep things simple for voters.

"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas

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Yes

It's called STV .

I think it's the best voting system period. I prefer the elimination of House districts and having each state use STV to allocate their seats in an at-large basis.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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representation of the poor

One potential compaint against this sytem is that it may punish communities with low voter turnout.

Basically, if you have strong differences in voter-turnout rates between different districts, then multimember districts would decrease the influence of those communities with lower voter turnout.

"You have seen how a man was made a slave; you shall see how a slave was made a man." --Frederick Douglas

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I'm not losing sleep

I'm for compulsory voting so long as there is a NOTA option for every office on each ballot.

I don't really have a problem punishing those areas with low turnout. With absentee ballots and other methods that make it easier to vote, there really isn't any excuse not to.

I never broke the law; I am the law! -- George W. Bush Judge Dredd
I'm listening to...

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