Big Risk for Hillary?
Thought re: Hillary in the general, assuming she's the nominee. I don't know the actual numbers, but suppose African-Americans would normally be 10% of the general election vote, of which 90% are for the Democratic candidate, so 9% of the total vote. Suppose two-thirds of them (6%) of those would-be voters are currently Obama supporters, and of those, two-thirds (4%) are eventually so pissed off at Hillary that they stay home in the general. That could easily make the difference in the outcome, right (even if I'm off by a bit in my assumed percentages) ?
As a note, I assume the above would be partially offset by incremental voter registration among African-Americans this cycle (attracted by Obama), but that factor probably wouldn't fundamentally affect the above, and in any case the newly registered would probably be the most likely to end up with a grudge against Hillary and stay at home.
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There is always the possibilty that
some supporters of the losing primary candidate will get turned off (if their candidate fails) and not vote in the general. I don't think the attacks against Obama by the Clintons have been all that severe, it's what goes on in primary campaigns. And Obama appears to be giving as good as he gets.
name the enemy, win the war
Yes, but there is a
Yes, but there is a difference here that I think should go without saying. African-Americans are looking at the first real chance of a black president, and they don't know when the next chance will come around. What would otherwise be seen as normal attacks and tactics -- if successful in kiling that dream -- is likely to cause exceptional resentment and grudges that affect voting in the general election. Of course, one could say the same theoretically about women (although really just white women) on the Hillary side, but I think sentiments are different.
I emailed the above
I emailed the above thought/question to a friend of mine from my RedState days (whose intellect far exceeds that of most RedStaters), Quentin Langley, and below is his reply, which I'm pasting with his permission (I've italicized).
Off the top of my head, I think your stats are about right - but irrelevant. There is no national poll. The general thinking, however, is spot on.
Black votes are critical to the Dems in several states. Across the confederacy it rises to about 40-60% of Democrats. Of course there are few states in this region where the Dems compete and none that they have won in the last two cycles. Your assumptions would make it harder for them to break through in some target states there - such as Arkansas (where things might be different anyway) and Virginia, which is moving left for reasons unconnected with the black vote, but where blacks are nonetheless a key constituency.
The other areas are big industrial states where the Dem vote is concentrated in major cities: PA, NJ, NY, MI, IL, OH and MO are all examples. (Actually, MO kinda straddles the two categories, being a slave state that stuck with the Union). The Dems will be heavily targetting a breakthrough in OH and MO. They will be keen to defend MI (especially against Romney) and PA. NJ is likely to be safe unless Giuliani is the nominee or Bloomberg runs as an independent. NY would probably be safe even under both of the above scenarios.
I left off a few states. In FL the black vote is critical, but less so than the Hispanic vote. Choice of VPOTUS might be key here. Warner might tip the balance in VA and Richardson might do so in FL (though Mexicans are not Cubans), AZ, and NV. Presumably, he would deliver NM outright. It could also offset possible problems with the black vote in CA, FL and NY (of which only FL is likely to be critical).
AZ, NV and NM are all likely to be close, though McCain would surely be safe in AZ, and Romney has strengths in AZ and NV.
He's right on Ohio
Almost all black Ohioans live in Cleveland, Dayton, or Cincy (the following is white v. black population):
Cleveland - 41 51
Columbus - 68 24
Cincinnati - 53 43
Dayton - 53 43
Toledo - 70 23
Cleveland numbers don't include the eastern suburbs, where a very large black population resides. For instance, East Cleveland (a different city than Cleveland proper) is over 93% black.
The rest of the state is pretty center-right, excepting the northeast. Democrats have pretty much tapped out traditional strongholds for votes. They need to turn out Columbus to have any shot. And if Hillary gets the nod over Obama, you can kiss Ohio goodbye. An Obama candidacy turns out Cleveland, Cincy, and Dayton in historic numbers. I'd predict a 6-8% win for Obama.
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