Inside the bubble
A recent Reuters/Zogby national poll for President gave the following results for the Democratic candidates (margin of error 4.7%):
Clinton 39%
Obama 38%
Edwards 9%
The dKos version (1/16/08): 
When you're inside the bubble, it's harder to understand and properly interpret what is happening in the real world. Nothing wrong with a particular group of people having an extreme bias in favor of a particular candidate (and against another candidate), so long as they don't base their assessment of the primary race on what they read on their blog.
Submitted by Brendan on Thu, 2008-01-17 01:17
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same day Pew Research poll shows
Clinton 45, Obama 31, Edwards 13. But yeah, good point.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Well, which one did you expect me to cite? ;-)
It's probably somewhere in the middle. I think Clinton is ahead but after Nevada and SC I expect her national lead to disappear, just like it has in those states already. Not that that matters except insofar as it influences what happens on February 5th.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
We could the same of RedState
the support for Thompson is abnormally strong there compared to outside their bubble.
Indeed, and Huckabee is their Clinton, mostly trashed on RS
despite widespread support from Republican voters.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
you can't hold it against them on Huckabee...
He is just not a good republican. And his support is nowhere as widespread as Clinton's is in their respective parties.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
That's partially because the GOP still has 4 viable candidates
When it's down to 2, like the Dem side essentially is, then we'll see how much support Huckabee gets. Assuming he's one of the two, of course, but I'm thinking he probably will be based on polls.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
You think that way
because you don't live in the South. Social conservatism mixed with economic populism sells big time down here.
Huckabee's rise in some ways has been like Obama's. A lot of blacks held back on Obama because they didn't think he had a chance to win. A lot of evangelicals held back on Huckabee because they didn't think he had a chance. Iowa changed the matrix fro both candidates.
qui tacet consentire
just like there are not enough blacks alone
to propel Obama to victory, there are not enough evangelicals alone to do the same for Huckabee... Obama has decent support outside of the black community, while I doubt the same about Huckabee.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
There sure is
if the non-evangelical vote is split among two or three other candidates.
And even if Romney, for instance, wins the nomination, you can bet that he would make an evangelical his running mate to try to placate that wing of the party. Might not be Huckabee, but it might be someone like Gov. Bob Riley in Alabama.
BTW, interesting fact I heard this morning -- no one has ever won the GOP nomination without winning the South Carolina primary.
qui tacet consentire
heh
I will predict right now, that if McCain wins SC, this will be the first time that someone won the GOP nomination without winning SC. There is no way GOP will nominate that guy.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
Hmm.... tell it to Bird Dog =)
Maybe they should. He's a better compromise candidate than Romney for the general -- I get that plenty of Republicans can't stand him but that holds for any of your candidates this cycle. If elected, he'd be good (from the GOP perspective) on foreign policy, acceptable on spending, acceptable on social issues, and bad on campaign finance reform.
Come, my friends. 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world -- Tennyson
there is a reason why most of McCain's support
comes from indies, democrats, and moderate republicans... It's because he's been pandering to those constituencies and the media for a long time. GOP does not need that kind of a "maverick". GOP needs a solid small government conservative.
"To discuss evil in a manner implying neutrality, is to sanction it." AR
But who is that candidate?
I'm waiting oh so anxiously to find out who that will be. It certainly isn't any of the candidates we have now.
Romney -- depends on the week
McCain -- see your post
Huckabee -- isn't "small government"
Rudy -- isn't "conservative"
Thompson -- isn't "solid"
Paul -- isn't "solid" or "conservative"
Do I really need to start talking up Duncan Hunter or Alan Keyes?
I never broke the law; I am the law! --
George W. BushJudge DreddI'm listening to...